Notes
Slide Show
Outline
1
Marketing Club Meeting
  • September 5, 2007



  • By


  • Mike Silver
  • msilver@kokomograin.com
  • 1-800-666-0613
  • 765-457-7211
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U.S. Corn
3
U.S. Soybeans
4
U.S. Wheat
5
U.S. Wheat by Class
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U.S. Soybean Meal
7
U.S. Soybean Oil
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Grains Around the World
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U.S. & World Corn Stocks
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World Coarse Grain Stocks
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U.S. & World Soybean Stocks
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U.S. & World Wheat Stocks
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U.S Soft Red Winter Wheat
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U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat
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Wheat Around the World
  • Top Ten Wheat Producers
  • Below are the leading wheat producers for the 2005-6 season. The top 10 producers accounted for over two-thirds of global wheat harvests.
  • China … 96.2 million tonnes (15.4% of global wheat production)
  • India … 72 million (11.5%)
  • United States … 57.1 million (9.1%)
  • Russia … 45.5 million (7.3%)
  • France … 36.9 million (5.9%)
  • Canada … 25.5 million (4.1%)
  • Australia … 24.1 million (3.8%)
  • Germany … 23.6 million (3.8%)
  • Pakistan … 21.6 million (3.4%)
  • Turkey … 21 million (3.4%


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"Top Wheat Exporters"
  • Top Wheat Exporters
  • Below are the leading wheat exporters for 2004-5.
  • United States … 31.6 million tonnes (29.9% of wheat exports from top 10 exporting countries)
  • Australia … 18.5 million (17.5%)
  • Canada … 15.1 million (14.3%)
  • France … 14.9 million (14.1%)
  • Argentina … 10 million (9.5%)
  • Russia … 4.7 million (4.5%)
  • Germany … 3.9 million (3.7%)
  • United Kingdom … 2.5 million (2.4%)
  • Kazakhstan … 2.4 million (2.3%)
  • India … 2 million (1.9%)


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Top 10 World Wheat Producers – Current
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Weekly Dollar Index Chart
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The Ethanol Crunch
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Ethanol Economics
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Commodity Fund Positions
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Contract Highs & Lows
  • +CU7 334' 2 442' 4 2/22/2007 256' 0 1/19/2006 9/5/2007
  • +CZ7 350' 6 435' 0 6/18/2007 246' 4 5/12/2005 9/5/2007
  • +CH8 367' 2 443' 0 6/18/2007 276' 0 3/27/2006 9/5/2007
  • +CK8 376' 4 448' 0 6/18/2007 296' 4 9/12/2006 9/5/2007
  • +CN8 385' 6 450' 6 6/18/2007 270' 0 2/2/2006 9/5/2007
  • +CU8 392' 0 434' 4 6/18/2007 293' 4 9/15/2006 9/5/2007
  • +CZ8 400' 0 434' 4 6/18/2007 260' 0 12/16/2005 9/5/2007
  • +CH9 407' 0 435' 0 6/14/2007 380' 0 4/2/2007 9/5/2007
  • +CK9 --- --- --- --- --- ---
  • +CN9 417' 0 441' 0 6/14/2007 314' 0 9/15/2006 9/5/2007
  • +CZ9 407' 2 433' 0 6/14/2007 302' 0 10/11/2006 9/5/2007
  • +SU7 893' 0 932' 0 7/13/2007 592' 0 9/12/2006 9/5/2007
  • +SX7 908' 2 950' 0 7/13/2007 595' 0 11/28/2005 9/5/2007
  • +SF8 923' 0 963' 4 7/13/2007 611' 0 9/25/2006 9/5/2007
  • +SH8 933' 4 971' 4 7/13/2007 675' 0 10/25/2006 9/5/2007
  • +SK8 939' 0 972' 4 7/13/2007 717' 0 12/15/2006 9/5/2007
  • +SN8 947' 4 981' 4 7/13/2007 626' 0 3/14/2006 9/5/2007
  • +SQ8 939' 0 970' 0 7/13/2007 849' 0 8/16/2007 9/4/2007
  • +SU8 920' 0s 948' 0 7/13/2007 784' 0 4/18/2007 9/4/2007
  • +SX8 916' 0 947' 0 7/13/2007 622' 0 10/10/2006 9/5/2007
  • +SF9 915' 0 947' 0 7/13/2007 799' 4 4/30/2007 9/5/2007
  • +WU7 831' 4 795' 0 8/31/2007 420' 0 4/7/2006 9/5/2007
  • +WZ7 835' 4 807' 6 8/31/2007 386' 0 1/17/2006 9/5/2007
  • +WH8 831' 2 798' 6 8/31/2007 444' 0 9/22/2006 9/5/2007
  • +WK8 766' 0 729' 0 8/31/2007 476' 0 4/3/2007 9/5/2007
  • +WN8 629' 0 622' 0 8/31/2007 372' 0 1/18/2006 9/5/2007
  • +WU8 624' 0 616' 0 8/31/2007 499' 0 5/29/2007 9/5/2007
  • +WZ8 633' 2 620' 0 8/31/2007 430' 0 4/27/2006 9/5/2007
  • +WH9 --- --- --- --- --- ---
  • +WN9 597' 6 600' 0 8/30/2007 447' 0 10/31/2006 9/5/2007
  • +WZ9 605' 0 610' 0 9/4/2007 526' 0 6/1/2007 9/5/2007
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Weekly Corn Chart
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December Corn
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March Corn
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December 2008 Corn
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November Soybeans
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January 2008 Soybeans
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November 2008 Soybeans
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Weekly Wheat Chart
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July 2008 Wheat
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How Big is the 2007 Crop?
  • ProFarmer Crop Tour
    • U.S. corn crop at 13.109 billion bu. (+/- 1%); national average yield of 153.47 bu. per acre.
    •  U.S. soybean crop of 2.658 billion bu. (+/- 2%); national average yield of 42.0 bu. per acre.
  • September 12th USDA Crop Production
    • First “in the field” yield data
  •  Average Trade Estimate:
    • Corn  -  152 – 155 bu/a?  13.2 – 13.3 bb
    • Beans -  41 – 42 bu/a ?
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Cost Outlook for 2008
  • Higher Input Costs
    • Fertilizer
    • Seed
    • Land
  • Machinery Costs



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2008 Acreage ????
  • Farm Futures producers responding to an August e-mail survey reported they were ready to cut corn acres by as much as 9% next year, putting the ground back to soybeans. The survey put 2008 corn plant intentions at 84.9 million acres, down from 92.9 million this year. Soybean seedings would surge to 72.6 million, up from 64.1 million in 2007. Wheat acres could fall slightly to 59.8 million, down from 60.5 million in 2007.
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New Crop Soybean/Corn Ratio
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Senate Farm Bill
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Other Thoughts
  • Crop Insurance Decisions
    • Wheat Sales Closing Sep 30th.
    • Revenue Coverage
  • September Crop Report; Sep 12th.
  • 08 Crop Budgets
  • 08 Spring Crop Insurance Decisions – 3/15/08 Sales Closing
  • Stay Alert for Opportunity
  • Maintain Flexibility
  • Stay In Touch
    • Phone 800-666-0613
    • Email   msilver@kokomograin.com
    • www.kokomograin.com